Get access to the same vehicle valuation tool that dealers rely on. With Black Book, you’ll have insider data to accurately assess trade-in and purchase values—empowering you to negotiate the best possible deal.
That being said, everything in 2021 has been abnormal, and for the first time since 1896 (the year the first car dealership opened!), automakers aren’t waving hundreds of thousands of dollars in “incentives” in front of their dealers. Instead, this year, unlike any other, end of year quotas aren’t in effect. If a dealership has a quota, it is self-imposed, and not from the manufacturer. As a result, our expectation is that end of year car deals will less attractive than in years past.
With that in mind the question remains, “Should I buy a car now or wait until 2022?” Let’s dive in and answer that!
Is it better to buy a new or used car right now?
Let’s kick things off with a quick discussion on buying new vs. used right now. In today’s market there is a short supply of both new and used vehicles. How tight is supply? Typically there are 2 to 3 million new cars in inventory at any given time. Right now that number is less than 1 million.
Used car inventories are not doing much better. Because of the lack of new car supply, more and more consumers and businesses (think rental car companies) have been buying up used cars. That, paired with that fact that very few lease cars are coming back to the market (and with good reason, most people are buying out their leases and making a profit), we’re in a situation were used car prices are up more than 50% in 2021 alone!
This is as good a time as ever to remind you that if you don’t need to buy a car right now, you really shouldn’t. Prices on both the new and used car side are astoundingly high. However, in our estimation, new cars are a better value right now than used cars. That because we have seen CarEdge members get deals at MSRP on new cars, which represents a way better value than buying a comparable 2 or 3 year old used car for it’s original MSRP with tens of thousands of miles on it.
Is it better to buy new or used right now? The answer, if you can afford it, is buy new.
Should I buy a new car right now?
If you do decide to buy a new car right now be prepared for the process. Many dealerships do not have inventory on their lot, and that means you’ll be placing a factory order. We have a complete step-by-step guide to factory ordering for FREE that you can use.
Your goal for a new car deal should be MSRP + dealer doc fee + taxes + registration. If a dealership is trying to add on thousands of dollars in extras, you can and should negotiate on them.
The amount of negotiating leverage you have will also depend on the local area supply of vehicles. For example, if you’re looking to buy a new 2022 Subaru Outback, it’s helpful to know that the days supply of inventory right now is 5. Compare that to the days supply of inventory of a new 2021 Ford EcoSport which has a days supply well north of 100. You are much more likely to get a car dealer to negotiate on the EcoSport (which has been discontinued), then you will with a Subaru dealership. It’s simply because they have more supply of the EcoSport than the Outback.
If you chose to buy a new car in this market, this type of local market analysis can help you come in prepared (and with realistic expectations) for your car deal. You can capture all of this data for free by simply using the car search on caredge.kinsta.cloud.
Should I buy a used car right now?
Used car prices are through the roof. There is no other time in history where we have seen used car prices appreciate as much as they have in 2021.
Should you buy a used car right now, even at the end of the year? No. Not unless you absolutely cannot afford a new car, or cannot afford to wait for a factory order. If you do decide to buy a used car their are a few tactics you can use to determine if you are paying a fair price (relative to the current market conditions).
The first suggestion we have if you are buying a used car is to see what Black Book, Carvana, and Vroom would pay to buy the car if you were selling it to them. To do this you can simply take the VIN of the vehicle you are interested in purchasing, and run it in Black Book, Carvana, and Vroom. See the short video below.
CarEdge Members get 10% your LemonSquad Pre-Purchase Inspection: 👉 Get my discount!
Once you’ve seen the valuations from Black Book, Carvana, and Vroom, you should have a pretty good sense for if the vehicle is priced fairly. If it is, when you contact the seller be sure to get the out the door price (we encourage you to use our free email templates to do that), and then request a pre-purchase inspection. We have a complete guide to pre-purchase inspections here.
FREE car buying tools & resources
To recap, you should only buy a car right now if you need to, not it if you want to. That being said, if you do buy a car right now, we think new cars represent a better value than used cars. In your quest to find a car dealer who will sell you a new car at MSRP, here are a few resources you should reference:
We hope this helps you answer the, “Should I buy a car now or wait until 2022” question. CarEdge is here to help you as you navigate one of the strangest and most difficult car buying markets of all time.
Here are comments from CarEdge Community members on the original post that inspired this article.
Used car prices have increased more than 50% in 2021. Historically, used cars decrease in value. You know the old saying about buying a new car? “The moment you drive off the lot, it’s worth 20% less.” Well, in today’s crazy market, the moment you drive a new car off the dealer’s lot it might actually be worth 20% more!
The ongoing chip shortage and undersupply of new vehicles is driving used car prices higher. Rental car companies, car dealers, and consumer demand are keeping prices elevated. Until new car inventories rebound to pre-pandemic levels, we’ll see elevated used car pricing.
With more and more consumers not returning their leases, fewer quality used cars are making it to the market. If your lease is coming due, please do not just return it to the dealer, instead, sell it for a profit. You would be leaving money on the table!
We also track new car prices and inventory levels. Our hope is that we can help you make an informed decision when it comes time to purchase your next vehicle.
This page will be updated weekly with new data from Black Book, Cox Automotive, and other sources.
If you have specific questions about used car prices please ask them on the CarEdge Community Forum.
Wholesale used car price increases show no signs of slowing down. The latest data from Manheim and Black Book show wholesale and retail used car prices hitting all-time record highs. Manheim’s used vehicle value index chart paints and eery picture; the data almost looks fake.
Data from Black Book suggests that wholesale used car prices have increased more than 50% since the beginning of this year. The purple line shows 2021 used car price changes. The blue line represents 2019. The differences are stunning.
Wholesale prices are not the only ones going up. Used car retail prices are also hitting all-time highs. Black Book data shows retail used car prices have increased nearly 35% since the beginning of the year. Traditionally the end of the calendar year is when used car prices decrease. That is not the case right now.
One positive indication in the data comes from Cox Automotive. They reported that inventory levels in October were up 20,000 units from September. September ended with 2.28 million used vehicles in inventory, while October ended with 2.30 million. October’s supply was still about 8% lower than 2020.
Cox also estimates that the days supply of used car inventory is at 42. Their data suggests that about 1.65 million used vehicles were sold in October 2021, up 40,000 units from the 1.61 million sold in September. October sales ran about 7% below the same year-ago period.
Both Cox and Black Book show retail used car prices hitting all-time highs. Cox has the average listing price for used vehicles at a new record of $26,971. That’s a $400 increase from September ($26,548).
Week-over-week Black Books has reported another increase in wholesale used car, truck, and SUV prices. The latest weekly increase was .41%. The price increase among trucks, SUVs, and vans was greater than car price increases.
This shows last weeks wholesale used car, truck, and SUV price gains.
Used car prices will continue to appreciate as long as automakers are struggling to produce enough new vehicles. We track new car inventory levels monthly. The latest new car inventory data for December is not promising.
That being said, many manufactures, including Toyota have signaled that the worst of the chip shortage is behind them. Other manufacturers, such as General Motors, are removing core features from their new vehicles in an effort to ship them to their dealers.
It’s unclear whether we’re “on the other side” of the chip shortage yet, and our expectation is that used car prices will continue to rise until it is more clear that the new car shortage is alleviated.
Used truck, SUV, and van prices 2021
Not all used cars are appreciating equally. Used trucks, SUVs, and especially vans are increasing at rapid (and unbelievable) rates. Look at the data provided by Manheim and Black Book below.
Black Book data shows that just last week used compact van prices increased over 2.5%. That’s UNHEARD of. These are your Ford Transit Connects, Mercedes-Benz Metris, Ram ProMaster City, and Nissan NV200.
Compact and sub-compact crossovers increased nearly 1% week-over-week.
As you can see, the data from Manheim also shows vans leading the way in terms of price increase.
Used car prices 2021
Certain used cars are increasing in value more rapidly than others. For example near luxury cars (think your Genesis and Acuras) are increasing rapidly week-over-week. The same goes for prestige luxury cars like your BMWs, Mercedes-Benz, and Audis.
Black Book provides “sales rate” data from the wholesale used car auctions.
Directly from Black Book:
The weekly estimated average sales rate has remained stable at the 70% mark for the 2nd week in a row. This time last year, the estimated average weekly sales rate was around 51%, so while floor prices continue to rise, buyers continue to purchase vehicles at auction at a higher rate.
Typically the holiday season signals an increase in newer used vehicles. This is because of lease returns and rental vehicles coming to the auction. This year that is not happening to previously expected levels. While there was a slight uptick in newer model year vehicles rolling across the lane this past week, a significant portion of vehicles are arriving damaged.
Franchise car dealers are grounding lease returns and not sending them to auction. Fierce competition at the auctions can be mostly attributed to large independent dealerships and rental companies. Because of inventory scarcity, we have seen bidding wars across the country. Wholesale values and floors continue to increase and give no indication of slowing down.
We’ve heard stories from our community of similar experiences at the auction, and it appears that rougher and rougher vehicles are crossing the auction block at this time.
Are any used cars depreciating?
No. From all of the data we’ve been able to get our hands on, it looks like there isn’t a single style of vehicle or particular nameplate that is not increasing in value right now. We know that certain vehicles are appreciating less than others, however all vehicles are increasing in value right now.
Luxury vehicles, and in particular luxury SUVs are appreciating much less rapidly than other vehicles. Take for example the Mercedes-Benz GLC, it has only appreciated 8% year over year. This further reinforces the theory for why the Mirage has increased in value nearly 50%; consumers need affordable and attainable used cars, not expensive and luxurious ones.
How long will used car prices keep going up?
Although our crystal ball has been notoriously cloudy here at CarEdge, we feel confident in saying that used car prices will continue to increase well into 2022. Even when automakers get production back up to speed for new vehicles, there will be lingering effects from this period of time where they have not been able to produce at expected capacity.
Also, the price to produce new vehicles has gone up. As a result of the chip shortage (and other supply chain issues), we expect MSRP on new vehicles to be considerably higher than before. Why? Because the manufacturers costs are increasing, and they will likely pass that along to the consumer. As a result, the demand for used cars will continue to be high because used cars (especially vehicles like the Mitsubishi Mirage) will be the only “attainable” price point vehicles for many people.
For these reasons, we think week over week, and month over month used car price increases will continue for at least another 12 months.
When should I sell my used car?
If used car prices are likely going to continue to appreciate, it would make sense to hold onto your used vehicle and wait to sell it. That being said, our best recommendation is to track the value of your used vehicle weekly. To do this we encourage you to use the “value my vehicle” section of your CarEdge account. You should also get quotes from Carvana, Vroom, CarMax, etc.
There may be small fluctuations in price from week to week, but we expect the price of your vehicle to gradually increase overtime. The indicator for when to sell will be when you see week over week declines in the value of your vehicle.
If You’re Buying a Used Car …
Our recommendation has been, and will continue to be to stop buying cars! We’re so passionate about this that we even made a website: http://stopbuyingcars.com/
However, if you need to buy a used car right now, here’s what you need to remember.
How to value if it’s a fair deal
The only way to know if you’re getting a fair deal is to get the out-the-door price from the seller and then compare that to the vehicle’s value. To get the out-the-door price follow this guide:
To know if the vehicle’s price is fair, we encourage you to run the VIN through the CarEdge vehicle valuation page and to also get a quote from Carvana to see what they would pay to buy the car right now. If the Carvana quote is close to what you are paying for the vehicle, then it’s likely a pretty fair deal.
Get a pre-purchase inspection
In today’s market, with “rougher” used cars for sale it is critically important that you get a pre-purchase inspection done on the vehicle you are thinking of purchasing. We have heard too many horror stories of people buying used cars “as-is” and then getting stuck with a piece of junk. Avoid that, and get a PPI!
Consider an extended warranty from CarEdge
Last but not least, consider getting an extended warranty on your used vehicle. CarEdge partnered with AUL Corporation to sell extended warranties with a flat markup, transparent pricing, and free consultations with an Auto Advocate. If we can help you protect your use car, we want to. More on that here: https://stg-caredge-staging.kinsta.cloud/extended-warranty/ and request a free quote here: https://app.CarEdgemember.com/service-contract
Each month we have been tracking new car inventory levels. Traditionally the end of the year is the best time to buy a car. This is because automakers provide large incentives to their dealers to sell as many cars as possible before the year-end. 2021 is very different.
Current new car inventory levels declined to new lows in December. With a lack of inventory, there will be no incentives or bonus programs for dealers this year. Why would there be? There are not enough cars to sell!
Which States Have the Most & Least New Car Inventory?
Below we breakdown the inventory levels of all of the major automakers we are able to source data on. You will see which cars have the highest inventory levels right now (an indicator that you may be able to negotiate the price of the car), and those that have the least inventory right now.
Based on days supply, here are the cars, trucks, and SUVs with the lease inventory right now:
Inventory Units (December)
Inventory Units (November)
Inventory Units (October)
Inventory Change (November to December)
Days Supply on Dec 1
Days Supply on Nov 1
Days Supply on Oct 1
Days Supply Change (November to December)
Subaru trk
5,700
4,500
6,400
1,200
5
4
5
1
SUBARU OF AMERICA
7,400
6,000
8,100
1,400
5
4
5
1
Subaru car
1,700
1,500
1,700
200
6
5
6
1
Mazda trk
4,800
6,000
10,100
-1,200
7
10
13
-3
MAZDA NA
6,000
7,500
12,400
-1,500
7
10
13
-3
Insight
200
700
1,100
-500
8
9
14
-1
Hyundai car
3,900
6,200
11,700
-2,300
9
9
15
0
Hyundai trk
13,200
13,700
15,000
-500
9
10
11
-1
Total Hyundai
17,100
19,900
26,700
-2,800
9
11
12
-2
Mazda car
1,200
1,500
2,300
-300
9
10
13
-1
While Subaru’s days supply of inventory increased (from 4 units to 5) this month, they still have an incredibly limited number of vehicles on dealer’s lots. Mazda’s day supply decreased considerably from 10 to 7 this month as well.
Based on the total number of available units, here are the cars with the least inventory:
Inventory Units (December)
Inventory Units (November)
Inventory Units (October)
Inventory Change (November to December)
Clarity
100
100
200
0
90 series
100
100
100
0
Insight
200
700
1,100
-500
XC40
600
800
1,500
-200
TLX
800
1,400
2,000
-600
Navigator
1,000
1,300
1,400
-300
ILX
1000
400
100
600
Mazda car
1,200
1,500
2,300
-300
Aviator
1,600
1,800
1,800
-200
60 series
1,600
1,700
1,600
-100
These are the vehicles with the lowest days supply of inventory right now, which means you shouldn’t expect to get a “deal” on any of these cars. The dealership knows they have very limited inventory and they likely won’t be getting new cars from the manufacturer anytime soon. Negotiating on these cars will likely yield frustration.
Through the ups and downs of the auto market, one thing remains the same: every state has a documentation fee. Also known as a doc fee, this isn’t like the other fees you’ll encounter. Be sure to familiarize yourself with what car dealer fees you should and shouldn’t pay.
The price of a car is never what it seems. There’s the selling price, the fees, the add-ons, and taxes. When it’s all said and done, you end up with the out-the-door price, and one of the line items you’ll see on your purchase agreement is a “doc fee”. Car dealer doc fees show up on EVERY car deal, and on this page we’ve aggregated all the car dealer doc fees by state for 2025.
Some states (like California and New York) cap the dealer doc fee. Others, such as Florida, don’t cap the doc fee. We’ve gathered the average doc fee that you should expect a dealership to charge in every state. If a dealer is charging more, you should try to negotiate the price down.Download this FREE negotiation cheat sheet!
Car Dealer Doc Fee by State – 2025
We’ve also included the average title and registration fee you should expect to pay in each state.
In today’s market you will likely not be able to negotiate the dealer doc fee. That being said, we have this complete guide to car dealer fees you should never pay.
You can find this data incorporated into our out the door price (OTD) calculator. When you are shopping for a new or used car it is important that you understand the total “out the door” price that you will be paying. Dealers like to get you to talk about monthly budget, however the most important things is to negotiate the OTD price.
When Buying a Car Out of State, Where Do You Pay Registration Fees?
Registration fees and taxes are generally paid in the state where you reside and where the vehicle will be titled and registered. If you buy from a dealership, they may collect your home state’s taxes and registration fees at the time of purchase and handle the paperwork for you. This saves you lots of time and hassle. If the dealer doesn’t handle it, you’ll need to register the vehicle yourself at your local Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) or equivalent agency. Unfortunately, vehicle registration fees are not negotiable, and are set by state law.
Here’s a look at vehicle registration fees by state as of 2025:
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Can a car dealer charge you more than the manufactures suggested retail price (MSRP)? If you live in the United States, the answer is an emphatic “yes,” and ever since the great chip shortage of 2021 (yes, we are naming it that), more and more car dealers have increased their new car selling prices well above MSRP.
Today we’ll walk you through the laws that allow car dealers to sell their inventory at thousands, tens of thousands, and hundreds of thousands above MSRP. These laws protect dealers to markup their inventory to levels well beyond MSRP. We’ve included a bonus “craziest markups” section at the bottom of this post to give you some context as to how out of control new car pricing currently is.
In this post we’ll also give you some suggestions for how you can find dealers that are not marking their new cars over MSRP, as well as the “word tracks” you can use when trying to negotiate with a salesperson or sales manager.
Without further adieu, let’s dive in!
How can a car dealer charge more than MSRP?
Many goods are sold by manufacturers through their network of dealers or agents. Think about insurance as an example. Many insurance products are sold by an agent, who is simply a licensed producer that represents an insurer. Could you buy insurance directly from the insurer? Sure, some companies allow for that, but not all. Many insurance companies don’t want to have to deal with selling their own product. As strange as that sounds, it’s pretty common, and instead of selling directly to consumers they employ agents to do that for them.
The same dynamic applies in retail automotive. Can you buy a car directly from a manufacturer? Yes. Do most manufacturers not sell directly to consumers because they don’t want to deal with all that it entails? YES. The hassle of dealing with customers, plus franchise dealer laws in all 50 states make it an easy decision for automakers to leverage their dealer partners to sell cars. That being said, there is certainly a wind of change. There are currently 13 states there have been proposed laws to allow for automakers to sell directly to consumers.
So long as most new cars are sold through dealers, the dealers will have their discretion to price their inventory however they’d like. MSRP does stand for manufacturers suggested retail price after all. At the end of the day, the franchise dealer model is simple:
The automaker is responsible for producing the vehicle. The dealer is responsible for selling the vehicle. The bank is responsible for financing the purchase of inventory for the dealer. The customer is responsible for negotiating and purchasing the vehicle.
Within the franchise agreements that dealers sign with their OEMs they do not have rules that prevent them from marking up vehicles beyond the suggested retail price. If automakers wanted to be consumer advocates and cap the price of their vehicles, they could do this by simply adding and enforcing a price cap rule with their dealer body.
This will likely never happen. Why? Because gross profit on new cars has never been higher (upwards of 16% for Lithia Automotive), and automakers and dealers alike are enjoying this new reality. If automakers attempted to stop their dealers from selling above MSRP they would be picking a fight with their best customer (remember, the dealer buys the inventory from them!).
Common Add-ons & Accessories
Some dealerships refuse to sell their cars for more than MSRP. That’s great. The issue is that they add all sorts of add-ons and accessories to a vehicle that you didn’t ask for. Here’s a perfect example of that from a Land Rover dealership:
In this case the dealer discounted their price by $1,000. That’s awesome! Then they added $3,769.41 in accessories and add-ons 🙁
The accessories they added are:
Advanced Ceramic Tech for $1,695
Lojack for $1,195
Nuvinair for $299
Protection Pack for $580
Our recommendation in this case (and in the current market) would be to negotiate the cost of the accessories down to the dealer’s cost. The dealership incurs a cost to their service department to install these products. That cost is likely a few hundred dollars (refer to the table below). With that in mind, you’ll want to ask for the RO (repair order) they issued for the installation of the accessories.
Item
Cost to Dealer
Retail Price
Dealer Profit
Interior protection
$50
$500
$450
Paint protection
$100
$850
$750
Undercoating
$200
$700
$500
Rustproofing
$50
$800
$750
Car alarm
$300
$800
$500
VIN etching
$75
$400
$325
Lojack
$325
$1,000
$675
Nitrogen-filled tires
$35
$250
$215
Window tinting
$25
$300
$275
Additional Dealer Markup
Many car dealerships are selling their new cars above MSRP, and they aren’t shy about it. Every new car comes with a window sticker, also known as a Monroney Label. Many dealers are adding additional stickers to new cars with their additional dealer markup. Here’s an example:
In this case the dealership added both add-ons (Theft Patrol, Perma Plate, and Mobile Clear Shield Package), and a “Market Price Adjustment” of $10,000. The market adjustment is additional dealer markup. You get nothing in exchange for having paid an additional $10,000. It is pure profit for the dealership.
How to negotiate when the car is over MSRP
What can you do when a new car is for sale over MSRP? How can you negotiate a lower price? Well, as always, remember “if it’s taxable, it’s negotiable.” That means if it’s taxed on the bill of sale, you can negotiate its price.
When it comes to additional dealer markup and add-ons we encourage you to not settle for what the dealer is asking for. Dig your heels in a bit and try and get some money back in your pocket. Just because they are asking for $10,000 in additional markup doesn’t mean they won’t accept $5,000.
If the dealer is adamant about their pricing and won’t budge, consider factory ordering a new vehicle. When you factory order you can get a legally binding signed buyers order for the agreed upon selling price at the time you place the order.
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What if I don’t live in these states? If you're outside these areas, don't worry! We're committed to making sure everyone can enjoy our deals. Although the delivery fee will not be waived, you can still purchase from CarEdge and either pay for shipping or coordinate pickup at a participating dealer.
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