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Black Friday 2024 is just around the corner, and this is one of the best times to score a deal you can be proud of. Year-end car sales kick off with Black Friday, and dealers nationwide will be rolling out major finance, cash, and lease incentives to clear out 2024 inventory as 2025 models continue to arrive. Let’s take a closer look at where you can expect to see the best deals in the last weeks of 2024.
Black Friday Deals to Expect in November 2024
Zero Percent Financing Offers
In 2024, auto loan rates are beginning to fall, albeit slightly. Following two years of high APRs, automakers will be looking to lure in buyers with low-APR offers. In October 2024, there are no fewer than 24 zero-percent financing offers in America. In November’s Black Friday financing sales, expect that number to grow.
Historically, automakers like Nissan, Hyundai, Mazda, and Ford have offered the most zero percent financing around the holiday, and we expect similar offers this year. Expect to see zero percent financing on popular models, especially for remaining 2024 vehicles. This could be a golden opportunity to lock in a great rate and save on interest over the life of your loan.
Aggressive Lease Deals
Lease deals are another cornerstone of Black Friday sales, with many offering lower-than-usual monthly payments and minimal down payments. There are even zero-down leases available today. Given the high inventory of 2024 models, automakers are likely to entice buyers with limited-time lease offers for EVs and trucks, two categories with an oversupply of 2024s and even remaining 2023s. Leasing is a great way to avoid the perils of depreciation, which often leads to negative equity car loans.
Cash Incentives and Manufacturer Rebates
If finance or lease deals don’t align with your goals, cash incentives could be your best bet. In November and December, automakers and local dealerships alike REALLY want to sell remaining 2024 inventory before they become last year’s cars.
With higher supply this year, automakers will likely offer hefty rebates on sedans, SUVs, and trucks to clear the lot for 2025 models.
Key Factors That Could Impact Black Friday’s Car Market
Rising Inventory Levels
According to the latest Cox Automotive market report, there’s now an 81-day supply of new cars in America. While this is slightly below the 83 days of inventory seen earlier in 2024, it remains above normal. In other words, there are plenty of new cars to choose from on dealer lots.
However, it also depends where you look. Several brands have much higher inventory right now, and are ripe for big discounts. The following brands are all more likely to have the best Black Friday car deals due to high inventory, and a flood of incoming 2025 models:
See local inventory data for any car or truck with CarEdge Insights.
If you’ve had your eye on a particular model, Black Friday might present the best chance to get it below MSRP, and with great financing terms. And the great news is that if you don’t see the model that you’re after on sale, year-end sales will hit hard come December.
The Interest Rate Landscape
In September 2024, the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut of the cycle, marking a turning point for auto loan rates. As a result, loan rates are gradually starting to fall, making car financing more affordable. With interest rates slowly falling, automakers are likely to introduce better financing specials, including 0% APR deals, as they look to clear out 2024 inventory during Black Friday and year-end sales.
EV Deals (Especially Leases)
With more electric vehicles hitting the market and early adopters already driving EVs, competition in the EV space has intensified. Automakers are out to convert the masses to EVs. If they don’t, they risk going bankrupt following billions upon billions of dollars in manufacturing investments.
As is often the case, automaker struggles create the perfect conditions for a buyer’s market. This is bittersweet news for EV shoppers who have been patiently awaiting lower prices. Expect competitive pricing on EVs like the Tesla Model Y, Hyundai IONIQ 5, Kia EV6, and Ford F-150 Lightning as automakers do their best to clear out 2024 models before the new year.
Are there Black Friday used car deals?
While Black Friday is traditionally focused on new car deals, the used car market becomes more favorable for buyers towards the end of the year. As more buyers flock to new car deals, demand for used cars typically declines, leading to more room for negotiation.
If you’re set on negotiating a used car deal this Black Friday, it’s a good idea to check out dealership lot inventory beforehand to see which cars have been sitting on the lot for too long. These are the cars most likely to see cash discounts, or better yet, be successfully negotiated with proven car buying strategies. Use CarEdge Insights to see how long cars have been sitting on the lot in your area.
Not ready to buy? December will have even bigger deals
If you miss the Black Friday car deals, don’t worry—some of the best year-end sales typically come in December. As dealerships scramble to clear out 2024 models before the new year, they often offer even steeper discounts, better financing terms, and larger incentives. So while Black Friday presents great opportunities, December could bring more significant savings. Keep an eye on dealer promotions, and don’t feel pressured to rush—there’s plenty of time to score a fantastic deal before the year ends.
If you’re asking, “When is a good time to sell your car?”, the answer is almost always sooner rather than later. In general, your car is worth more today than it will be tomorrow. However, there are nuances for some drivers that can change the dynamic. Here’s a closer look at when selling makes the most sense, and when waiting won’t hurt.
2025 Is Almost Here
As the calendar approaches 2025, it’s important to recognize that your car’s value will drop significantly once the new year begins. On January 1st, your vehicle will effectively be considered a year older, even if it hasn’t aged by much in terms of mileage or condition. This is because most car buyers and dealerships use model year as a primary factor in determining value. If you’re thinking about selling or trading in your vehicle, now is the time to act before the new model year triggers additional depreciation.
Mileage plays a big role in determining a car’s resale value. Two critical thresholds where cars typically lose significant value are at 100,000 miles and 150,000 miles. Once a vehicle crosses 100,000 miles, it’s seen as a higher maintenance risk, which can reduce its value by up to 20%. At 150,000 miles, the depreciation steepens further, as buyers become wary of potential expensive repairs. If your car is approaching one of these milestones, it may be time to consider selling before the value drops significantly.
If You Don’t Sell Before Year’s End, Wait for Tax Refund Season
If you decide not to sell before the end of 2024, your next best option is to wait until the spring, when tax refund season fuels a surge in used car demand. Historically, many buyers use tax refunds to purchase used vehicles, making it an ideal time to sell and get a better price. As demand rises, so do resale values. Timing your sale around this season can help you maximize your car’s value.
How Hurricanes Impact the Used Car Market
Hurricanes Milton and Helene brought devastation to the Southeastern US in October. As the cleanup continues, the new and used car markets are beginning to feel the impacts. With a large number of vehicles damaged by flood waters and wind, thousands of cars were taken off of the market for the time being. This has created a spike in demand and pricing, which could work in favor of sellers. However, keep in mind that replacing your car during this shortage may be more expensive, and the risk of flooded cars on the market warrants caution for car buyers and sellers alike.
All-Wheel Drive Vehicles: Sell Before Winter Ends
For those owning all-wheel drive (AWD) vehicles, selling now is a strategic move. AWD cars and SUVs are highly desirable in cold climates, making this the season when demand (and therefore resale value) peaks. As winter fades and spring approaches, buyers become less interested in AWD vehicles, leading to lower offers. By timing your sale to match seasonal demand, you can justify a higher selling price, putting more money in your pocket.
In general, holding onto a vehicle means watching its value decline. When it comes to playing it smart, the rule of thumb is to sell when demand is high and before your car depreciates further. Stay informed about your car’s depreciation with theCarEdge Research Hub, where you can compare depreciation, total cost of ownership, and more to make an educated decision about your next move. It’s free data for all!
In our recent CarEdge Negative Equity Report, we uncovered an alarming trend: 31% of those who financed their vehicles are currently underwater on their loans. In other words, they owe more on their cars than the vehicles are worth. Among electric vehicle owners, the rate of negative equity is even higher—46% of EV drivers are upside down on their loans. Two brands stood out with particularly high rates of negative equity: Tesla and BMW. Here’s a look at just how bad the situation is for owners of these two luxury car brands.
Half of Tesla and BMW Drivers Are Underwater
The CarEdge Q3 2024 Negative Equity Report revealed that 52% of Tesla owners and 50% of BMW owners are underwater on their car loans in 2024. This is significantly worse than the industry average. Tesla owners had a median equity of -$1,718, the lowest of all car brands analyzed. In fact, Tesla was the only brand with a negative median equity. BMW drivers didn’t fare much better, with a median equity of just $421, ranking second worst among 16 brands.
How did we get here?
In 2023, Tesla slashed prices across its lineup by an average of 25%. For example, Tesla’s best-selling Long Range AWD Model Y now starts at $47,990, a drastic drop from $65,990 in late 2022. These sharp price cuts sent resale values plummeting, driving up negative equity among Tesla owners.
For BMW, the situation is less straightforward. While BMW retains about 63% of its value after three years—above average for a luxury brand—higher financing APRs have slowed equity growth. Coupled with falling resale values, BMW owners are struggling to stay above water.
A Recipe For Negative Equity: Tesla and BMW Drivers Take Out Longer Loans
Our Negative Equity Study also highlighted the impact of loan terms on negative equity. Drivers with shorter loan terms of 48 months had a median equity of $9,762, while those with 60-month loans saw a median equity of $7,041. However, longer loans of 72 or 84 months had a devastating effect on equity. Those with 72-month loans had a median equity of just $2,085, while 84-month loans left drivers with a median negative equity of -$4,920.
Tesla and BMW owners are particularly prone to longer loans. Tesla drivers had an average loan term of 66 months, with 65% of respondents having 72-month loans or longer. BMW drivers averaged 63 months, with 43% of them financing for 72 months or more. These extended loan terms put drivers at a higher risk of negative equity, especially when combined with the rapid depreciation often seen with luxury and electric vehicles.
To avoid negative equity, drivers should consider sticking to loan terms of 60 months or less and making larger down payments whenever possible. Choosing vehicles with strong resale value can also help maintain equity throughout the life of the loan. For example, models like the Toyota Prius have consistently performed well in resale value rankings, while others like the Tesla Model X perform poorly.
Another effective strategy to combat negative equity is simply keeping your vehicle longer. Drivers who frequently trade in cars are much more likely to be upside down on their loans, as depreciation outpaces the payoff of their existing loans.
Compare vehicle depreciation, maintenance costs, and more with the 100% free CarEdge Research Hub. It’s insider data, for everyone!
As we approach the end of 2024, now is the time to score big deals on new SUVs. Many dealerships have excess inventory, especially leftover 2023 models, making these vehicles ripe for negotiation. Here are the five most negotiable SUVs for year-end shoppers in 2024.
The Jeep Grand Wagoneer tops the list with a 275-day supply (193% above the market average). There are 2,587 Grand Wagoneers currently for sale, and 23% of them are 2023 models. That’s the most of any mainstream model on sale today. As Jeep’s most expensive vehicle ever, with an average price of $102,479, the pressure is on dealerships to clear out old stock. Right now, Jeep buyers can take advantage of 0% APR for 36 months or 3.9% APR for 72 months. We expect these Jeep deals to get even better in the final weeks of 2024.
The Ford Escape is next on the list with a 160-day supply and some serious manufacturer incentives. In late October, there are 52,832 Escapes for sale nationwide, including 1,000 leftover 2023 models. Ford is offering attractive incentives, such as 1.9% APR for 60 months plus a $4,000 trade assist. Additionally, you can sign an Escape lease deal for $279 per month for 36 months with $2,429 due at signing.
The Dodge Durango has a 152-day supply (62% above average), with 15,801 units on sale, including over 700 remaining 2023 models. Despite its high average price of $53,800, Dodge is offering up to $5,950 in cash discounts, making it a highly negotiable SUV this year-end sale season. Right now, you can lease a Durango for $379 per month for 36 months with $4,199 due at signing.
The Kia Sorento has a 134-day supply (43% above average), and there are 31,176 Sorentos available. Kia is offering 0% APR for 48 months or a Sorento lease deal of $269 per month for 24 months with $3,999 due at signing. The Sorento received a big facelift for 2024, but remains a slow seller. SUV shoppers should use this to their advantage.
Rounding out the list is the Nissan Pathfinder, with a 114-day supply (21% above average) and 19,187 Pathfinders still on sale. Nissan is offering attractive incentives, including 0% APR for 36 months plus a $1,500 cash discount. If you’re looking for a negotiable SUV, the Pathfinder is worth a test drive.
Thousands of SUVs Are On Clearance
Time flies, and 2024 is already nearing its end. As 2025 approaches, dealerships are eager to clear out their remaining inventory, particularly leftover 2023 models. If you’re in the market for a new SUV, now is the time to negotiate—aim for up to 25% off the original MSRP on remaining 2023 models, and at least 10% off of remaining 2024s with high inventory.
Ready to master the art of negotiating a car deal with confidence?Sign up for Deal School, our 100% free, self-paced online course taught by CarEdge Co-Founder Ray Shefska.
If you’re in the market for a new truck, 2024’s year-end sales offer the perfect opportunity to score big savings. With plenty of unsold inventory on dealer lots, especially among 2023 models, now’s the time to negotiate. Here are the five most negotiable trucks for year-end buyers.
The Ram 1500 is a standout among negotiable trucks this year, with a market day supply of 166 days, 77% above average. There are 58,522 new Ram 1500s for sale, including 1,000 of last year’s 2023 models, making this a prime target for truck deal hunters. Ram is currently offering 0.9% APR for 72 months and up to $6,500 in cash savings. If you’re eyeing a Ram 1500 Classic, there’s even more reason to negotiate, as it’s being discontinued in 2025.
With a market day supply of 134 days (41% above average), the Jeep Gladiator is another negotiable truck for 2024’s year-end buyers. There are 16,134 Gladiators currently on sale, including 1,000 leftover 2023 models. Right now, Jeep is offering 0% APR for 36 months plus $3,250 in cash discounts. For buyers looking for a versatile mid-size truck that can handle rugged off-road conditions and open-air driving, the Gladiator is hard to beat. Check out listings near you.
Despite its reputation as one of the more affordable full-size trucks, the Nissan Titan is struggling to move off dealer lots. Perhaps that’s why the Titan is officially being discontinued next year. With a market day supply of 132 days (40% above average) and 3,012 Titans for sale, this truck is ripe for negotiation. The best deals right now include 0% financing for 60 months plus up to $6,590 in cash discounts.
There’s an oversupply of GMC Sierra 1500s right now (116 days of supply), with 48,349 units still on sale, including 750 leftover 2023 models. For those looking for the best truck incentives, GMC is offering zero percent financing for 36 months plus up to $5,000 in cash discounts. For those checking out Sierra 1500 lease deals, the Sierra 1500 Crew Cab is available for $389 per month for 24 months with $3,609 due at signing.
While the Ford F-150 Lightning has a market day supply of 73 days (below average), it’s the 459 remaining 2023 models that make this truck highly negotiable. With 10% of all new Lightnings being last year’s models, there’s room for big discounts with negotiation know-how.
Electric trucks have very rapid depreciation right now, so approach these deals with caution. Ford is currently offering 1.9% APR for 36 months, or buyers can lease the XLT Standard Range for $371 per month with $6,930 due at signing.
Year-End Truck Deals Will Be Worth The Wait
If you’re on the hunt for a new truck, the 2024 year-end sales season is on track to be huge. We expect to see more zero percent financing, cash discounts of at least $5,000, and crazy good lease offers for most trucks on the market.
With high inventory levels and aggressive incentives, buyers should be able to negotiate up to 25% off the original MSRP on leftover 2023 models, and at least 10% off of 2024s. Ready to master the art of negotiating a truck deal with confidence? Sign up for Deal School, our 100% free, self-paced online course taught by CarEdge Co-Founder Ray Shefska.
States eligibile for below invoice pricing and 100% free delivery:
Alabama, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Delaware, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.
What if I don’t live in these states? If you're outside these areas, don't worry! We're committed to making sure everyone can enjoy our deals. Although the delivery fee will not be waived, you can still purchase from CarEdge and either pay for shipping or coordinate pickup at a participating dealer.
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