122,000 New Cars Are In Hurricane Milton’s Path: What It Means For Car Prices

by Justin Fischer | Last updated Oct 9, 2024 | Uncategorized

As Hurricane Milton barrels toward Florida’s Gulf Coast, the automotive industry is bracing for significant losses. Over 122,000 new cars are parked in the storm’s projected path across Central Florida, with landfall expected on October 9th. While residents focus on evacuating, thousands of cars will be left behind to face damaging winds and floodwaters. Here’s a closer look at which automakers and regions will be most affected by Milton, from Tampa Bay to the Space Coast.

Ford, Toyota, Hyundai have the most inventory in the Tampa area.

In the greater Tampa metro area alone, over 35,000 new cars are for sale, many of which are at serious risk of damage from storm surges predicted to reach up to 12 feet. Considering that about half of Tampa sits lower than 20 feet above sea level, storm surge will pose a major risk to all, not just cars. Local economies will feel the impacts for months to come. When it comes to the car market, Hurricane Milton could throw a wrench in year-end car sales that normally ramp up come November and December. 

These are the major car brands with the largest new car inventory in the Tampa area:

• Ford: 5,372 cars
• Toyota: 3,836 cars
• Hyundai: 3,182 cars
• Chevrolet: 2,734 cars
• Honda: 2,058 cars

These numbers reflect the total new car inventory for a 30-mile radius extending out from St. Petersburg, Florida as of October 7, 2024. Given these numbers, the Tampa area is facing potential losses that could impact local dealerships for months to come. In fact, Florida inventories and sales are so significant that Hurricane Milton could impact some automaker’s bottom lines. 

See local car market data with CarEdge Insights

Luxury brands to be hit hardest

While the overall number of luxury cars in Milton’s path is lower, the percentage of their total U.S. inventory at risk is staggering. Brands like McLaren, Alfa Romeo, and Aston Martin have some of the highest proportions of their national inventory in Florida, making them particularly vulnerable:

• McLaren (8.7% of total US inventory)
• Alfa Romeo (6.2% of total US inventory)
• Aston Martin (6.1% of total US inventory)
• Maserati (5.5% of total US inventory)
• Lincoln (5.4% of total US inventory)

With luxury vehicles making up a smaller market share, the impact of losing even a few hundred cars could cause significant disruptions for these high-end brands.

Will Hurricane Milton Impact Car Prices?

With a one-two punch from hurricanes Helene and Milton, the Southeastern US will be recovering for months to come. With the possibility of thousands of cars totaled from flood damage, the car market in Florida will be most impacted. In the short term, new and used car prices could jump as available inventory shrinks and car dealers look to make up lost profits.

As Florida car shoppers move north in search of undamaged inventory, the demand for new cars in the neighboring states of Georgia, South Carolina, and Alabaman may push prices higher. Unfortunately, recent events have taught us that car dealerships don’t hesitate to add ‘market adjustments’ to MSRPs when demand exceeds supply.

For those outside of the Southeast, it’s unlikely that car prices will be impacted by Milton. However for Floridians, a tough car market is about to get even more challenging.

Car Buying in Florida: A Tough Market Just Got Worse

Florida has long been known as one of the toughest states for car buyers. Uncapped documentation fees that average around $995—three times the national average—already make buying a car in the Sunshine State a costly affair. Florida also tends to have tighter inventory than other states. With the added destruction from Hurricane Milton, car buying could become even more difficult and expensive.

Post-hurricane recovery efforts could see dealerships facing inventory shortages, leading to inflated prices and markups above MSRP. With demand likely to outstrip supply, shoppers may also encounter more aggressive dealer fees in the months ahead. It’s times like these when a cap on dealer fees sure makes sense. Unfortunately, Florida is one of the only states without one.

What to Expect After Milton

Hurricane Milton is shaping up to be one of the most devastating storms for Florida’s automotive market. With thousands of new cars in the storm’s path, dealerships and automakers are likely to experience financial strain. If history is any lesson, this will inevitably trickle down to consumers. If you’re considering buying a car in Florida in the near future, prepare for higher prices and limited options as the state recovers from the storm. 

For those in immediate need of a vehicle, buying a car out of state may be a better option as local inventory shrinks. As multiple storms hit the Gulf Coast, car buyers will need to cast a wider net to find deals and avoid potential markups.